Quaest released a run of state polls between Monday and Thursday covering 23 states and the federal district, and g1's map of them was fifth on the Brazilian reading list. The shape it gives the first round is symmetrical. Lula leads outside the margin of error in seven states; Flávio Bolsonaro leads outside it in seven others. In nine more they are tied within it — and those nine include São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the three largest electorates in the country.
The seven for Lula are in the north-east: Alagoas, Bahia, Maranhão, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte, Sergipe. The seven for Flávio Bolsonaro are spread wider: Acre, Espírito Santo, Mato Grosso, Paraná, Rondônia, Roraima, Santa Catarina.
One state has a different first name at the top. In Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado is numerically ahead on 32 percent — though tied within the margin with Flávio Bolsonaro on 27, with Lula on 20. The margins are two points in the São Paulo poll and three in the rest.
The national picture is a separate poll on a separate date, and worth keeping apart from the map. Gazeta do Povo reports the Quaest survey released on the 14th: Lula first at 38 percent to Flávio Bolsonaro's 31 in the first round, and in the second round 43 to 40, a technical tie inside a two-point margin. That survey tested thirteen names in the prompted first-round scenario and four head-to-heads for the second. In the unprompted scenario, where no names are read out, the largest group was undecided, at 51 percent.
Why it is on the board
Fifth on g1's most-read list when we collected.
The election is not what Brazil is reading about abroad. Two of the thirty items we held are the Nepal flood — one putting the dead at 675, a figure we have not seen on any other board this week, and one asking why the images of the flooding in Nepal and Tibet are not being shown. That second one is the same story that is top of the British list today, and which we are carrying there.
확인: g1 · Gazeta do Povo