A Harris Interactive-Toluna survey for M6 and RTL, published on Monday, has Jean-Luc Mélenchon in a position to reach the second round of the 2027 French presidential election. Across five first-round configurations the pollster tested, he gets there against Marine Le Pen in three, and ties with Édouard Philippe in a fourth. For a candidate the same institute had at 12 percent in April, and who now runs between 16 and 17, that is the movement in the numbers.
The detail turns on who else runs. With Raphaël Glucksmann at 10, Gabriel Attal at 8, Philippe at 14 and Bruno Retailleau at 6 all on the start line, Mélenchon takes 16. Remove Attal and he and Philippe tie on 17 each. Remove Philippe instead and Attal takes 14 to 15 while Mélenchon stays on 17. Only one arrangement puts Philippe ahead — Attal standing down and François Hollande, on 8, carrying the social-democratic banner in place of Glucksmann. There Philippe has 19 to Mélenchon's 17.
Above all of them is Le Pen, between 35 and 38 percent in the first round. And in the second she wins against everyone the poll pairs her with: 68 to 32 against Mélenchon, 57 to 43 against Attal, and 55 to 45 against Philippe — the last being the result that matters most, because until now the mayor of Le Havre had looked like the candidate best placed to beat her.
The survey was run online on 18 and 19 August with 1,764 people, quota-sampled to represent the French population aged 18 and over. The margin of error is given not as one figure but as a range, 1.4 to 3.1 points, which is what happens when several different scenarios are cut from one sample. Mélenchon's own week gave the numbers their peg: he opened his political year in front of several thousand supporters at Châteauneuf-sur-Isère in the Drôme.
Why it is on the board
Eleventh on BFMTV's most-read list when we collected, with a clip on the poll in the French video lens.
Two things are worth writing down about the sources rather than the survey. The first is that the two versions we hold are the same agency copy — the sentences, the figures and the order of the paragraphs match — so this is one account carried twice, not two newsrooms agreeing. We are counting it as one.
The second is what each put at the top of it. BFMTV's headline is that Mélenchon is in a position to qualify. Journal du Net's, over the same text, is that Le Pen would win whoever she faces. Both are in the poll. Which one is the news is an editorial decision, and the two carriers made it differently.
확인: BFMTV · Journal du Net